CURRENT INFECTIONS

[roger]

CURRENT INFECTIONS

There is doubt about the exact number of infections due to the reduction in daily testing over the holiday period.
However the general indication is significant increase across Spain.

At the same time in some areas, such as Madrid and Catalonia, they have only administered around 10% of the vaccine they have available.

The figures in Almeria province are 209 new cases, a rise from 150 a week ago.
There are 82 in hospital, 24 in ICU.
On Saturday there were 7 new admissions, one to ICU.
No recent deaths, and 100 new recovered.

In Andalucia there has been a big rise in new infections, 2220 new cases, a big increase from the 692 last Sunday, and the highest sine November 22nd.
940 in hospital, compared with 3478 in November 10th.
214 in ICU, compared to 528 November 18th.

Obviously there is concern that the effect of the holiday period has not yet been seen.

In Gibraltar the infection rate is huge, with the new UK version having arrived by air, something which Spain has been unable to control.
As a result Andalucia has effectively closed the surrounding towns, such as La Linea and San Roque.

[Drax]

When you have idiots like these.. organisers and attendees, well let's hope they get their just rewards..

The Mossos d'Esquadra believe that behind the international macro-party that was held for 40 hours in the Llinars del Vallès warehouse (Vallès Oriental) is a kind of “relatively well-organized” community that has already organized events of similar dimensions in the past in Spain or elsewhere in Europe, according to sources consulted by EL PERIÓDICO.

The chapter this New Year's Eve, however, is unusual: in the midst of a pandemic and when European countries impose more mobility restrictions on their citizens, it has concentrated hundreds of young people from all corners of the continent in an industrial warehouse in the Vallès Oriental .

According to Major Josep Lluís Trapero, the promoters of the event did not announce until a few hours before the exact point at which the 'rave' would be held. A precaution that exceeded the detection capacity of the Catalan police and that also demonstrates the degree of connection that prevails among the regulars at these clandestine meetings who share a love for electronic music, as shouted by the woman whose image has gone viral when trying of talking topless with the riot police who came to evict them on Saturday.

The problem is that of the 215 who were identified, only a hundred were Spanish. Among the rest there were 35 French, 10 Italians, 10 Andorran citizens and citizens from countries such as Holland, Austria or Luxembourg . Police officials admit that these sanctions will hardly reach them. A setback that amplifies the social perception of impunity that surrounds this strange chapter. 

[jimmymac]

 Crazies from all over the continent, 

[roger]

Total lockdown in Catalunya as a result of this.

In Andalucia there is a meeting planned for 8th with any possible changes on 10th.

[roger]

We cannot take much notice of statements about the number of doses of vaccines which will be available.
These are all estimates and in some cases wishful thinking.

The figure for the doses of Pfizer vaccine is now stated as 80 million for Spain.
But the original order the EU made with Pfizer was 300 million.
Spain’s share would be 30 million.
I am sure they have now increased their order, but to meet the demand Pfizer is now building another factory in Germany, so no one can say when the supply will meet the demand.

As for the distribution of the vaccination programme in Spain, there is a big disparity in various regions.
Madrid has given 6% of the vaccines they have been supplied with.
Catalunia 8%.

The president of Madrid has complained that the vaccine was a day late, and that they could not find some of the care home residents because they had gone to their families for the holiday, despite the fact that everyone had weeks to plan.
This is the same woman who boasted about how quickly they had built a new hospital, but when asked where the staff would be coming from she replied that it was not her responsibility.

Catalunia has not got enough staff trained up, despite weeks to prepare.

But in Andalucia things are going smoothly. All the staff have been in place for weeks, and so far they have administered 40% of the vaccines.
By this time next week all the care home residents will have had their first dose.

Andalucia will receive 75,000 doses every week (subject to supply issues from the manufacturer).

But it is a long haul and we can look to mid summer to see 50% of the people getting the vaccine.
However at the moment in Andalucia things are not serious.
Life is pretty much normal. Hospitals are operating well below the peak.
And things are under control.
At least we are not in the situation the UK is in. Why the difference I do not know.
A lot has been made of the new variant, but this happened because the virus was spreading out of control before that.

In Andalucia we can expect a slight hardening of restrictions from 10th but we will not know the details until 8th.

[Drax]

But in Andalucia things are going smoothly. All the staff have been in place for weeks, and so far they have administered 40% of the vaccines.

Lunchtime news on Antena3 was quoting 37% but that's close enough for me, given any time difference between collecting and collating the data.
Thank you Roger, your reports and input are appreciated. 

[roger]

There has been a big rise in infections in most of Spain.

In Andalucia there have been 2391 in last 24 hours.

276 new infections in Almeria, up from 150 on Tuesday.
12 new hospitalisations, 24 to ICU.
But no new deaths, and 29 recovered in last 24 hours.

So we can expect additional restrictions announced tomorrow.

As for the vaccine, there is a big problem all over Europe in getting them out, and big complaints about the delay in approval.
One problem is that the recommended procedure from the manufacturer is being followed, a second dose after 3 weeks to give full immunity.
Hence the second dose is being kept back because of uncertainty when the weekly doses will arrive.

The good news is that today approval has been given to the Moderna vaccine, which will bring 8 million to Spain, but there is as yet no information about when.

At least 4 other vaccines are on order, but the only one so far which seems ready for approval is the Aztec Zeneca vaccine.
There is no explanation why there is the delay, but reading between the lines there was a delay in the manufacturer sending the data. The issue seems to be that the EU is giving full approval (making the manufacturer liable for any problems) whereas the UK has given emergency approval (making the UK government liable).
Hence the EU is requiring further data from further trials.

In my opinion we have to be patient, and given it is a long haul a delay of a few weeks will be not that important.
The spread we are seeing will not be affected by the vaccine because it will be some months before it is wide enough.
The effect will just be to prevent serious illness for those who are weak and infirm.
The other issue is that we do not know how long the immunity will last.
In the UK they will have to give a second dose in 12 weeks.
Here the two doses will give long term immunity, but no-one knows what long term means.
Probably 12 months.

[Billy1]

 Thanks Roger, appreciated!

[roger]

Spain is due to receive 600,000 doses of the moderna vaccine during the next 6 weeks.
I estimate this will be around 10,000 a week for Andalucia, in addition to the AZ vaccine.
So I estimate this will allow vaccination for around 40,000 a week in Andalucia.

[frankie]

I understand the delay has been down to not being sufficient vials to put the vaccines in.

Your updates are much appreciated Roger and give some relief in the knowledge that Spain is not in the same position as UK.
UK has not been advised to wear masks at all times as Spain has.  According to relatives in UK there are many who do not even wear them in shops, which is where they are supposed to wear them.  I wonder if research in future will blame the non wearing of masks for the massive numbers in UK.

[roger]

They still quote 2 metres.
But that was based on research when someone had a serious cough or cold.
It does not relate to the common case where people have no symptoms.
In this case the aerosols can spread over 8 metres.
That's why a mask is important to trap as much of the aerosols as possible from the infected person.
The whole world knows this, except the UK.

[frankie]

History will dictate which was correct!