Author Topic: VACCINATION PROGRESS  (Read 4004 times)

roger

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VACCINATION PROGRESS
« on: 01 Feb, 2021, 07:42:02 pm »
VACCINATION PROGRESS

Although there has been a slow start the Spanish Government is maintaining its estimate that 70% of the population will be vaccinated by the end of Summer.
This is based on their calculations about the number of vaccines which will be received from April onward.

To date Spain has received 1.6 million vaccines, mostly Pfizer and some Moderna.
This is sufficient for 800,000 people, of which 160,000 are for Andalucia.

The expectation is that in the first quarter, up until the end of March, Spain will receive around 5 million vaccines (4.6 million Pfizer and 600,000 Moderna).
This will be sufficient for 2.5 million people (500,000 for Andalucia).
However this does not count on possible increases from Pfizer because as yet there are no figures, only a promise of extra doses.

Based on the current knowledge it is expected that in March the over 80s will start to get doses, of which there are around 2 million in Spain.

The calculation is that in the second and third quarter the number of vaccines will increase considerably, but there are no figures. It is not a question of the number on order, it is simply a question of how quickly Pfizer can increase production.

On the subject of Astra Zeneca, no figures are included in these estimates because there is no detailed information from the company.
The other unknown is whether Spain will use this vaccine for over 65s or whether to follow the scientific opinion in Germany that the level of protection is low and unknown for over 65s.
It could mean that Spain will only make them available for under 65s, which presumably will depend on how quickly the Pfizer upgrade comes on line for the over 65s.

Remember these figures are based on a double dose within 3 weeks, for long term effectiveness.

So 70% by the end of summer?
Very unlikely.
But for most of us by early summer, highly likely.
If this happens then ICU and hospitalizations will be vey low and therefore we can look forward to a more or less normal summer.
But we should still even then be careful.









frankie

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Re: VACCINATION PROGRESS
« Reply #1 on: 02 Feb, 2021, 09:42:00 am »
Thank you Roger.   I'll be able to let my DR know when I see him later this week...  :wink:

roger

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Re: VACCINATION PROGRESS
« Reply #2 on: 03 Feb, 2021, 11:26:49 am »
There is no doubt that the UK has made a very good start to the vaccination programme.
This has been possible because they gambled on the Astra Zeneca vaccine which has paid off.
They also gambled on giving early approval for its use before they had all the test data, again it has proved a good gamble.
It could of course have turned out differently.
The gamble was correct and necessary because the NHS was and still is facing huge problems of serious infections and deaths which they seem unable to control with restrictions.

Regarding the Astra Zeneca vaccine, the EU gave approval for its use for everyone over 18.
However almost all EU countries have now independently decided that there is insufficient data to know how effective it is for people over 65.
Therefore they have decided to only use it for people under 65.
Spain is as I type discussing what to do.
But it is almost certain that they will take the same scientific advice.
People over 65 will be given the Pfizer and Moderna vaccine which has proven data, and will use the AZ vaccine for people under 65.
This is based on the calculation that during February there will be sufficient Pfizer and Moderna vaccines to complete vaccinations of the over 80s, and with the promise of more supplies from Pfizer should be able to start under 80s early March.

frankie

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Re: VACCINATION PROGRESS
« Reply #3 on: 03 Feb, 2021, 11:37:52 am »
All this seems to tie in with what I am understanding.  I've been told not to expect my vaccine prior to end of March/beginning of April. I cannot wait to get it.....