VACCINATION PROGRESS
Although there has been a slow start the Spanish Government is maintaining its estimate that 70% of the population will be vaccinated by the end of Summer.
This is based on their calculations about the number of vaccines which will be received from April onward.
To date Spain has received 1.6 million vaccines, mostly Pfizer and some Moderna.
This is sufficient for 800,000 people, of which 160,000 are for Andalucia.
The expectation is that in the first quarter, up until the end of March, Spain will receive around 5 million vaccines (4.6 million Pfizer and 600,000 Moderna).
This will be sufficient for 2.5 million people (500,000 for Andalucia).
However this does not count on possible increases from Pfizer because as yet there are no figures, only a promise of extra doses.
Based on the current knowledge it is expected that in March the over 80s will start to get doses, of which there are around 2 million in Spain.
The calculation is that in the second and third quarter the number of vaccines will increase considerably, but there are no figures. It is not a question of the number on order, it is simply a question of how quickly Pfizer can increase production.
On the subject of Astra Zeneca, no figures are included in these estimates because there is no detailed information from the company.
The other unknown is whether Spain will use this vaccine for over 65s or whether to follow the scientific opinion in Germany that the level of protection is low and unknown for over 65s.
It could mean that Spain will only make them available for under 65s, which presumably will depend on how quickly the Pfizer upgrade comes on line for the over 65s.
Remember these figures are based on a double dose within 3 weeks, for long term effectiveness.
So 70% by the end of summer?
Very unlikely.
But for most of us by early summer, highly likely.
If this happens then ICU and hospitalizations will be vey low and therefore we can look forward to a more or less normal summer.
But we should still even then be careful.
